Jack Miller submits:

Before long, we will get the "official announcement" that the recession ended in June, five months ago. The end of the recession does not mean that we are back to old highs, but that the direction of the economy is once again up.

While the report from the Gallup Poll suggests that some of the bounce in consumer attitudes might only be a reflection of the Halloween Holiday Spirit, a number of improving trends have developed. Employment is the forever lagging indicator; when there is a downturn, companies try not to lay off their employees, in hopes that the recession will be short-lived; when a recovery begins, companies are slow to hire, until they are sure that business is going to continue to improve. Stock prices, a leading indicator, falls early and rises early. Stock prices are up 60% since February.

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