A Little More Today than Yesterday! Trading Stuff.
Today in Commodities: One Week ’til Santa
Dec 19th
Matthew Bradbard submits:
Crude oil had a nice week as prices have made their way back over ; clients are positioned long March via call spreads. We expect more upside next week and on another /3 we should reach our objective. We have no exposure with clients in natural gas but remain convinced prices will be back over very soon.
Currencies were uneventful, we may start looking at longs in the commodity currencies next week. We remain convinced that we’ve survived the worst in the NOB spreads and would expect 30-yr bonds to gain on 10-yr notes in the coming weeks. We do not have any exposure on one-directional trades and prefer the spread for now.
General Growth Properties: Two Sides to the Story
Dec 18th
Todd Sullivan submits:
There is another post out Friday morning that pegs the value of General Growth (GGWPQ.PK) equity in the range. Let’s look at it and talk about what I see as its errors.
The spreadsheet can be found here at Distressed Debt investing. Unlike the Hovde “research” Hunter gives us a range of variables in the spreadsheet and avoids many of the glaring unconscionable errors Hovde made.
The Economics of Decision Making: ‘Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness,’ by Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein
Dec 18th
John M. Mason submits:
The underlying premise of the book, “Nudge: Improving Decisions About Health, Wealth, and Happiness,” by Richard H. Thaler and Cass R. Sunstein, (Yale University Press, 2008). is that people, in general, are not as perfectly rational as economists assume they are in many of the most fundamental models used in economics and financial economics. Thaler and Sunstein approach the problem solving of human beings from the standpoint of the behavioral economist and see human beings as fallible decision makers. (See other reviews on behavioral economics here and here.)
This book is important for a very fundamental reason: the journal Foreign Policy has listed the pair of Thaler and Sunstein seventh on their recently released list of the top 100 global thinkers. Their work has “earned them an ear in the Obama White House” and Sunstein has gone to work there as the new head of the White House’s Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, which deals with everything from avian flu to student loans.
Today in Commodities: One Week til Santa
Dec 18th
Matthew Bradbard submits:
Crude oil had a nice week as prices have made their way back over ; clients are positioned long March via call spreads. We expect more upside next week and on another /3 we should reach our objective. We have no exposure with clients in natural gas but remain convinced prices will be back over very soon.
Currencies were uneventful, we may start looking at longs in the commodity currencies next week. We remain convinced that we’ve survived the worst in the NOB spreads and would expect 30-yr bonds to gain on 10-yr notes in the coming weeks. We do not have any exposure on one-directional trades and prefer the spread for now.